Seeing MH17 in Perspective

by

The outpouring of criticism of Russia almost invariably includes mention of the mention of the “dastardly” shooting down over the Ukraine of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014.

Russia was presumably ultimately responsible, whether or not it was their own people who were handling the BUK missile launcher, since they supplied the equipment. Nevertheless, it was obviously a mistake.

The late, and much missed Australian aviation journalist, Ben Sandilands, made the point that though the Ukrainians–keen to get revenue from overflights–said airliners could fly there so long as they kept above 32,000 feet, they should not have been doing so as failure of an engine would mean they would not be able to maintain that height.

To be fair, we should not forget that when the USS Vincennes, a multi-billion-dollar US warship chasing rag-tag gunboats, mistakenly shot down an Iranian Airliner in the Persian Gulf in 1992, the US government obfuscated and muddied the waters to deny responsibility (just like the Russians are doing).

They finally paid out $61.8 million in compensation to discontinue a case brought by Iran against the US in the International Court of Justice in 1989, all the while not admitting responsibility.

 

 

Siberian Flight Corridor

by

 

I still remember flying the very long southern route from London to Japan and then the quicker route via Anchorage taking eighteen hours or so.

Now there is the non-stop route via Siberia taking about twelve hours–11.40 Eastwards; 12.30 Westwards.

However, until seeing the fascinating little video below there were things about the route I did not realise.

The Russians, aware of the valuable card they hold, charge as much as $100 per passenger per return trip, though details are confidential. 

Apart from the UK, where Virgin and BA were given permission, only one carrier per European country was allowed.

This means legacy carriers such as BA, Air France, Lufthansa, KLM, and SAS monopolize the route.

Though the high charge coupled with high air passenger duty, say from London, would make life difficult for low cost carriers, Norwegian has applied but been refused.

See video:

USS VINCENNES Accidently Shoots Down Iranian Airliner

by

The account is typical of so many air crashes in that it resulted from a whole series of misjudgements, errors and unfortunate circumstances.

The inquiries faced the dilemma that if they faulted the crew, captains might in future hesitate to defend their ships.  

_____________________________________________________

Many readers are using Kindle Unlimited which may not allow them to post reviews–though we do cleverly get paid according to the number of pages read!

For your information an (unfair?) US 2-star review was as follows:

29 April 2018 – Published on Amazon.com
Format: Kindle Edition
Interesting compilation of famous airline accidents, spoiled by the middle of the book by a shrill polemic attacking the U.S. Navy and the crew of the USS Vincennes, and deteriorating to claims of governmental coverups and the incompetence of police and investigators. There are also startling neologisms and amazing vacuoles of ignorance. One example of an unintentionally funny confabulated “fact” is about a pilot named Gibson with a nickname of “Hoot”, attributed by the author to a role as an owl in a school play. I should have stopped reading while it was still credible.

1. Things complained about are at the end of the book not the middle.

2. Vincennes material as stated largely based on research by Newsweek.

3. “Hoot” not a funny confabulated fact, but taken from a great book on the affair, though tired of being asked about his nickname, Gibson suggested in the occasional interview it was derived from that of a famous actor.

Any well-considered review on Amazon.com to compensate would be greatly appreciated.

On the other hand, the 5-star review in the UK was:

Andy–5.0 out of 5 stars

“The new MacArthur Job has arrived.”
Mr Bartlett has taken over the mantle of the late, great MacArthur Job, as an aviation writer of undoubted excellence.
His book covers many, many accidents, both well known and obscure, in just the right amount of detail to remain fascinating.

The only negative thing I can say is that he seems to have a great disrespect for Captain Sullenburger. Often deriding Sully’s piloting skills whenever the opportunity arises.

And TWA 841 was a 727, not a 737, an accidental typo no doubt, as was a quote on the same page dated 1971 instead of 1979.

[We corrected the typos, removed some gratuitous references and rewrote the end of the account of Sully’s ditching to better explain we meant the MIRACLE  lay both in the ditching and in the rescue from the water.]

Sixty Minutes MH370 Misrepresented MH370?

by

Articles have appeared in papers such as the Daily Mail quoting experts criticizing the Australian Sixty Minutes MH370 experts.

One criticism was that Sixty Minutes had (ridiculously) alledged the aircraft had “dipped” its wing to Penang in some kind of symbolic gesture. In fact, the expert had simply said he thought about it for several hours, until it dawned on him that the pilot turned left and then right so that he could dip his wing to SEE Penang (where he had been when young).

Another of the criticisms, was was that at the end the pilot would not have had any oxygen left and could not have been controlling the aircraft. What would have stopped him re-pressurising the aircraft once everyone else on board was dead?

Victor Lannello (mentioned in a previous post) provides interesting detail on his blog with regard to the civilian radar data for MH370’s track across land to Penang and onwards. Then, when one looks at the numerous comments on that blog, one relializes everything (even the precise tracks followed before MH370 was out of radar range) is problematic with various possible interpretations. Obfuscation on the Malaysian side has added to the mystery.

ANOTHER SEARCH?

It seems the new Malaysian administration is going to insist the search by Ocean Infinity terminate on May 29.

It was from the outset a rather awkward arrangement in that the Malaysian government would only pay if the debris field/recorders were found and the longer it took the more they would pay.

However, drawing a line under the present search might open the way for, say Ocean Infinity with a new contract (and a chance to recover part of their investment), to have later quick look if more certain of the precise location of the wreckage on the ocean floor, as happened in the case of AF447 lost in the South Atlantic.

“60 Minutes” and MH370 No Female Experts!

by

In a piece called “Why no Woman’s Voice in MH370 Discussion?”, Christine Negroni, author of  The Crash Detectives, objected to the absence of women (notably herself or another who had written on MH370) from the panel of experts appearing on the Australian TV program called 60 Minutes. 

The UK’s BBC is trying to have more female experts appearing on it news programs, but this does raise the question whether they are the most “informed”. In the case of Australia–a long way from anywhere–the cost of flying in experts would be considerable, and the idea of having just one for each area of expertise seems reasonable. Also, with less than 5% of commercial pilots being women the odds of having one would be slight.

FEMALES IN AVIATION SAFETY ROLES

However, this would be a good opportunity to point out that in the US at least, women have featured prominently in the area of aviation safety, though not necessarily at the nuts and bolts level.

The following immediately come to mind:

Carol Carmody, an NTSB Board Member at the time of the American Airlines Flight 587, November 12, 2001 crash (the copilot swished the rudder violently back and forth when caught up in wake turbulence on taking off from New York’s JFK causing it to break off );

Mary Schiavo, a former U.S. DOT Inspector General, who rustled a lot of feathers in the aviation industry, criticizing the FAA, and writing a book called Flying Blind, Flying Safe.

and Deborah Hersman, NTSB chair, at the time of  the Asiana Airlines crash at San Francisco, in 2013.

It is said that women are often better than men in intelligence work (e.g. UK’s MI5) involving the picking out leads from massive amounts of data. It would be interesting to know if the NTSB, for example has found this to be the case.

In a follow-up piece, “Bombshell  TV Program on Malaysia 370 Fueled by Alternative Facts”, Negroni not only lambastes the program but takes to task the Washington Post and CBS News for repeating  its claims.

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED

In our book, Air Crashes and Miracle Landings, we describe the disappearance of MH370 and conclude (as did 60 Minutes) that the coincidences are so many that the diversion to the South Indian Ocean must have been intentional with the captain the most likely perpetrator.

We mentioned Victor Iannello as the best source of information on MH370 and true to form he has produced a must-read critique of the 60-Minutes arguments. He even says why some investigators believe the flaps and flaperons were not deployed when the aircraft hit the water. The pair found washed up off Africa had marks showing they were touching at the time of impact which would only be the case if they were stowed.

Ianello’s critique is called “Sixty Minutes Australia Story on MH370 is a Sensation“.

DANGERS OF ASSUMING THE “MOST LIKELY” TO BE WHAT HAPPENED

In 1989 the Cargo Hold Door of a Boeing 747 opened midflight ejecting some business class passengers near Honolulu.

Believing the door opening mechanism could not operate inflight because there was no electric current, the NTSB concluded the locking mechanism must have been damaged by poor ground handling. Later through a great feat the US Navy recovered the door from the bottom of the ocean. It showed the door had been opened electrically due to a short-circuit with other wiring.

Without definitive proof, speculation can never be definitive. To the present author there seem to be far too many coincidences consistent with an intentional act, but that does not mean Christine Negroni’s theory as to the cause is certainly wrong.

USS Vincennes shot down an Iran Air 655 in 1992–reviewer outraged

by

A reviewer of this expanded second edition of Air Crashes and Miracle Landings seized upon our account of the downing of Iran Air 655 by a US warship, saying it was a “shrill” attack on the US Navy and the police, even though we did not mention the police. In fact, it mostly consists of a “blow-by-blow” factual account, saying who did what.

Admittedly we did begin by saying:

  A fabulously expensive US warship designed to fight World War III, with a “gung ho” captain, found itself larking around with Iranian gunboats, and in the process shot down an Iranian airliner on a scheduled flight. The loss of the Pan Am 747 over Lockerbie, Scotland, was just possibly a consequence of this.

Iran Air Flight 655 and USS Vincennes, July 3, 1988

And after describing the tragedy in great and interesting detail we ended by saying:

The Iranian airliner had had 274 passengers and 16 crew on board, and all perished.

The US paid $61.8 million in compensation to discontinue a case brought by Iran against the US in the International Court of Justice in 1989, all the while not admitting responsibility.

The US Navy inquiries faced a conundrum, for if they admitted the captain was at fault it might mean captains in future would hesitate to defend their ships. Actually, the fault concerned not so much the captain’s final decision but his appointment in the first place, the Vincennes entering Iranian territorial waters and putting itself in the path of the airliner, the radar operator not resetting his distance and hence picking up the transponder of a fighter on the runway at the airport, and the operator erroneously finally confirming to the captain the aircraft was descending when it was climbing (that might be construed as wish fulfilment).

One thing is for sure, it was crazy having an ultra-sophisticated warship costing a billion dollars engaging tiny speedboats, a task for which she was neither suited, nor designed.

To gloss over the affair, the US Navy gave medals to Captain Rogers (and other members of the crew) but, tellingly, not another ship.

We kept this account just as it was from the previous edition of the book, partly because it was still relevant in view of the Malaysian Airlines MH17  Boeing 777  incident over the Ukraine in 2014.

Furthermore, it was typical of so many air crashes in that that it resulted from a whole series of factors.

We were not criticising the US Navy as a whole, and the account mostly described in detail and without comment what happened.

Kindle Unlimited Preventing Reviews of “Air Crashes and Miracle Landings”

by

To fight the scourge of fake reviews whereby review factories for a fee submit hundreds of glowing reviews Amazon has made it a rule that reviewers must have purchased the book and have spent $50 at one time or another on the credit card.

This means that we have not been getting the expected reviews in the US since many of our readers use Kindle Unlimited to read our book. This is not a problem for us financially as we get paid according to the number of pages read and it is a long book.

Since our 3-month enrolment period for Kindle Unlimited ends on April 28, and we will wait before renewing it to hopefully get some reviews in the US.

By the way, we were delighted to receive the following review for Air Crashes and Miracle Landings on Amazon UK:

UK Five Star Review
5 out of 5 stars

“The new MacArthur Job has arrived.
4 March 2018
Format: Kindle Edition
Mr Bartlett has taken over the mantle of the late, great MacArthur Job, as an aviation writer of undoubted excellence.
His book covers many, many accidents, both well known and obscure, in just the right amount of detail to remain fascinating.
The reviewer added that the only fault he could find apart from a couple of typos was our seeming to question Sullenberger’s flying skills.
As a result we corrected the typos and rewrote the ending of the piece on the “Miracle on The Hudson” (see this blog) as the title with its play on words was liable to be misunderstood.

Uncontained Engine Disintegration/Southwest

by

In Air Crashes and Miracle Landings  we describe two “catastrophic” cases where the shrapnel from the engine struck vital parts, even in more than a hundred places, and  by dint of great airmanship  the aircraft was brought back with many and all surviving. In the case of Southwest 1380 unfortunately it was a passenger who suffered.

UA232

The first of the two incidents was the “Uncontrollable” DC-10’s Miracle Landing at Sioux City.  United Airlines Flight 232, July 19, 1989.

The engine that disintegrated  was in the tail of the jumbo trijet. In that case, rather than  single blade as in South west 1380 that might have been retained by the protective casing, it was a blade-retaining disk further down in the engine that shattered with a with a large heavy piece penetrating the fuselage and slicing through the triplicate (for safety on the belt-and-braces principle) hydraulic control lines for the rudder and elevators in the tail.

With no rudder of ailerons, and no hydraulic pressure to operate the ailerons the aircraft was theoretically uncontrollable. However, with the help of an off-duty captain who had  been sitting in First Class and who on realizing something was wrong had offered his services, they were able to maneuver the aircraft by adjusting the power of the two engine in pods under the wings. This was facilitated by the fact that they were very low-slung to balance the third engine (the broken one) high up in the tail. However, they were only able to make crude adjustments and, unlike conventional controls, any action (increase or decrease of power one one side or the other) would take several or more seconds to have an effect.

They managed to come in with an extremely high rate of descent into Sioux City Airport but with a wing dropping and correction in time impossible it snagged the ground and crumpled . The aircraft cartwheeled and broke into five piece. 

 Incredibly, 185 people out of 296 survived, making a death toll of 111. That so many survived was to some extent due to the sterling efforts of the cabin crew and their rigorous training in a simulator, which made a crash landing and fire seem real.
Even so, their contribution would have probably been in vain, supposing they were even still alive, had not the high rate of descent and the 215 + 10 knot ground speed been absorbed in some manner. This is a prime example of the fact mentioned in this book’s preface that the more horrendous-looking crashes can be the most survivable, due to the fracturing and crumpling absorbing the shock.

It is a remarkable tale, and must rank as one of the true aviation “miracles.” 

QF32

The other incident we describe in detail in the book is Qantas Flight QF 32, on November 4, 2010, where the engine on a double-decker Airbus A380 superjumbo disintegrated with shrapnel hitting it in some hundred places but fortunately not penetrating the passenger cabin. With almost 95% of systems compromised and fuel leaking from the wing the pilots flew around for an hour solving as many problems as possible before landing faster than usual with a dangerously overweight aircraft and hardly any runway to spare.

It is another example of great airmanship.

 

 Southwest 1380

The pilot (and copilot) have been praised. Interestingly they cane in faster than usual at 170 knots, apparently because of the limited flap. However, when unsure of the state of the aircraft extra speed and one at which the aircraft is known to be OK is the  safest option. One only too well remembers the DC-10 in the photo below that flipped over and crashed when the loss (falling off) of an engine caused the slats on tha twing to retract. The pilots had followed the rule-book and slowed, when had they stayed at their speed the wing would not have stalled and the aircraft would have been flyable. (The idea behind slowing down was to avoid the theoretic danger of a damaged aircraft breaking up.)

 

 

 

Surprising tweet from someone who indicated an agenda

There have been many tweets praising the captain of Southwest 1380.  Yet, there was one admonishing her because her voice in her verbal exchanges with ATC did not indicate any compassion for the victim(s). No mention of the fact that, her essential job done, she came to give verbal support to the traumatised passengers. Could it have been fake news to bring someone with that agenda into disrepute?

 

 

Southwest Incident, Would More Slowly Rotating GTF Fan be safer?

by

It would be interesting to know whether a geared turbofan engine might be safer than the conventional one as regards the type of incident sadly suffered by Southwest Airlines. A fan rotating more slowly might be less likely to lose a blade and the centrifugal force being less might mean the casing might retain it should it fail.

One thing that is surprising is the time the NTSB will take to draw definitive conclusions when they can already see the place where the blade fractured, unlike in crashes where thousands of pieces have to be recovered to find the cause.

 

Kindle Drop Capitals now possible

by

I bought a program called KU TOOLs that at a keystroke could remove (but not replace) drop capitals from the printed version of Air Crashes and Miracle Landings before putting it on the Kindle. as they did not work there. There was an expensive program that could do it, but judging from a professionally produced book I read on the Kindle the result was hardly pleasing.

When I recently made  a Kindle file submission test run on getting my book ready for pre-orders I left the drop capitals in and they came out really beautiful. (BTW,  I had set them to drop two lines on the printed version, and the Kindle dropped them three which in view of the smaller size was perfect.)

This is wonderful as I can have the basic book the same for both printed and Kindle versions and not have to update two and risk getting them out of sync.

Note: The interior file I submitted to Amazon Kindle was a “Web Page (filtered) htm, html using Word (Office 365)

Christopher Bartlett (Author/Publisher)